IN FOCUS
By Keerthana Nambiar

China in 2022:  Xi Jinping’s navigating through time

Premise
On 17 December, Jamestown Foundation published an editorial by John S. Van Oudenaren for the China Brief. The research article titled ‘China in 2022: Xi’s Time is Only Beginning, But Where Will it Lead?’ provides a brief analysis of Xi Jinping and the internal dynamics of China in the past few years and its effect in 2022. “The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) official narrative holds that China is at a decisive moment,” states the author. 

Reviewing the research article:
First, Xi Jinping’s wide media coverage and core leadership positions.
The author says, “Not since Mao Zedong has a leader dominated China’s political life to the extent that Xi currently does.” The article says that Xi’s pictures, ideas and excerpts from his statements have been incorporated into media platforms to get the information to a bigger audience along with setting up new research centers called ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ centers. In 2021, Xi’s promotion to the ‘core’ leader of the country for the coming decade as the Central Military Commission (CMC), General Secretary and the President without a term limit created a trajectory for Chinese politics for the next decade. Despite the power, Xi faces difficulty in navigating China through the realities of international order. According to the article, China’s isolation due to COVID-19 has challenged Beijing more than one way creating complex problems to deal with continuous pushbacks from the US, Europe, Australia, Japan and India. 

Second, the promise of transforming economy and reassertion in the public lives. 
The article points out that Xi Jinping has used the international and international challenges to repeatedly promote the idea of ‘common prosperity and reducing socioeconomic inequality with the promise of transforming the Chinese economy. This technique has led to the leadership reasserting itself in the lives of citizens affecting their decision-making. This induction has increased with the government monitoring, enforcing COVID-related restrictions, restriction of social media, decreasing the celeb popularity has altered the social behavior. On the other hand, Beijing faces the pressure of delivering the Olympics amidst the controversies and the unmanageable debt caused by the property sector. 

Third, the lack of successors and the factional politics.
One of the major concerns for the top-leadership body- the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and the Politburo is the lack of a successor after Xi Jinping. During Deng Xiaoping’s administration, Xi made effective progress as a prospective leader which is not the case this time. According to the author, the lack of a successor is likely to stir up factional friction. Even though the Party couldn’t completely get rid of factional competition the possible oppositions were sent to lifetime imprisonments citing corruption charges. Xi’s reversal to ‘Cultural Revolution’ and policies are expected to keep any kind of factional strife at bay till he retires. 

Fourth, the PBSC leadership and the aging factor. 
According to the article, most of the senior leaders of the Central Committee including Xi Jinping have crossed the age norm of 65. As Xi eroded the retirement age, he made exceptions for key Central Committee leaders with the “seven up, six down” rulemaking them eligible for the Politburo. Even though Xi wants his factional rivals out of the picture citing the age norm, to push his factional rivals out of the picture would “politically cost” him. The article also discusses Li Keqiang, the Chinese Premier as a threat to Xi Jinping’s authority. Initially, the Xi-Li administration worked on economic policies known as ‘Likonomics’. Over the years, Li’s influence narrowed as Xi consolidated his power and enhanced the ability to command state organs and bureaucracy.

Analysis
The research article provides a detailed background of the political dynamics of China and how it will create or omit opportunities for future leaders along with senior leaders. It rightly delivers how Xi navigated his influence and power during his administration, suppressing any opposition and keeping the factional composition in check. The author also discusses the challenges that Xi Jinping has to face in the coming future while delivering the Communist Party of China’s goals and satisfying the promises made to his citizens. He rightly concludes, “Xi may believe that he can always fall back on his strong reputation for “clean governance” among the laobaixing (common people), but whether this will persist indefinitely as economic challenges pile up, and draconian COVID-19 limitations drag on for another year remains to be seen.”. The article fails to detail the international pressure on the authoritarian regimes and difficulties that Xi will face in the international community. The author also fails to mention Xi Jinping’s role in monitoring and regulating the activities in Hong Kong administration, human rights issues in Xinjiang region and Taiwan’s political future. The recent escalations in these conflicted areas are spearheaded by Xi Jinping with the help of the Party are vital elements in deciding Xi Jinping’s political future.

References:
John S. Van Oudenaren, “China in 2022: Xi’s Time is Only Beginning, But Where Will it Lead?,” Jamestown Foundation, 17 December 2021

IN BRIEF
By Dincy Adlakha and Avishka Ashok 

INTERNAL
Two meters of the Great Wall damaged by a 6.9 magnitude earthquake
On 10 January, Global Times reported that a part of the Great Wall had collapsed after a 6.9 magnitude earthquake hit the Qinghai province on 8 January 2022. According to the report, two meters of the wall collapsed in the Shandan country in the Gansu Province. The area is located 114 kilometers away from the epicentre of the earthquake in Menyuan county in the Qinghai province. The collapsed wall was discovered after the local authorities began an inspection of the cultural relics after the earthquake. (“Section of Great Wall collapses after 6.9 magnitude earthquake hits NW China,” Global Times, 10 January 2022)

Local authorities record an upsurge in coronavirus cases in Tianjin and Henan 
On 10 January, Global Times reported that the cases of the coronavirus had spread from Tianjin to the Henan province. The local authorities urged the citizens to exercise precaution and restrain themselves from spending time outside during the upcoming Spring Festival. Anyang city in Henan province also started city-wide testing and imposed restrictions after the local authorities discovered 26 cases in 48 hours. Outbound trains, buses and taxi services have been restricted from functioning at their normal pace. (“Omicron infections spread from Tianjin to Henan,” Global Times, 10 January 2022)

Analysts predict a larger exodus from Hong Kong in 2022
On 11 January, the Strait Times reported that the exodus of expatriates and locals from Hong Kong is bound to increase in 2022 due to the crackdown on civil society and the restrictions imposed on independent media. The exodus initially began in 2019 and deepened in 2020 when the National Security Law was established. An executive from a firm in Hong Kong said: “With everything that's happening in Hong Kong, the strict quarantine rules and the national security law, banks and companies across the broader financial services sector are looking at their footprints in the region and where they want people based.” (“Hong Kong's brain drain worsens as expats, locals flee city,” The Strait Times, 11 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Taiwan and Canada sign agreement to discuss foreign investments
On 11 January, governments from Taiwan and Canada announced that an agreement was signed to promote talks of a foreign investment deal. The agreement was framed by Canada’s international trade minister Mary Ng and Taiwan’s “minister without portfolio” John Deng. The agreement iterates that “exploratory discussions” will begin on Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA). While the Taiwanese minister dubbed the agreement as a milestone for its economic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, the Canadian minister said that this deal will attempt to provide “a stable, rules-based investment environment for Canadian businesses investing abroad and for foreign businesses investing in Canada.” (Ian Young, “Taiwan and Canada to begin talks on foreign investment deal, ministers announce,” South China Morning Post, 11 January 2022)

Dubai Expo 2020 sees celebration of National Day of China Pavilion
On 10 January, the National Day of China’s Pavilion was celebrated by raising the national flag of China under the iconic Al Wasl Plaza dome which is the central stage of Expo 2020 Dubai. The occasion was witnessed by various top officials from China and UAE including the Chinese Ambassador to UAE, UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation and also the Managing Director for the big event. All ministers stressed that the cooperation between UAE and China has increased over time, especially under the Belt and Road Initiative. The China Pavilion is a platform to provide central attention to China’s milestone achievements in space, IT, AI and other fields. (“National Day of China Pavilion celebrated in Expo 2020 Dubai,” Xinhua Net, 11 January 2022)

President Xi insists on strong ties with Belarus as 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties approaches
On 10 January, President Xi Jinping said that China is willing to work with Belarus to promote their bilateral relations. The statement was released to mark the upcoming 30th anniversary of the diplomatic ties between China and Belarus. He also said that this anniversary will mark a new starting point of their ties. President Xi also spoke with Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko and called for collective efforts to improve political trust mutually and enhance the China-Belarus comprehensive strategic partnership. President Lukashenko mentioned that Belarus hopes to promote cooperation between the two in pandemic, trade, investment and education sectors. (“Xi calls for sustained development of China-Belarus ties,” Xinhua Net, 11 January 2022)

Chinese Foreign Minister shows support to Kazakhstan against ‘terrorism’
On 11 January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the unrest in Kazakhstan and described the anti-government protests as terrorism. He also offered cooperation from Chinese security and law enforcement agencies in order to stabilize the situation. He said that Beijing will help to “safeguard the political system and regime safety of the two countries.” China also showed support to Kazakhstan against the three known evils also in force in Xinjiang, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The three evils of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism will be conquered over, the Chinese Foreign Minister assured Kazakh counterpart Mukhtar Tleuberdi. (Jack Lau, “Chinese foreign minister condemns Kazakh unrest, vows to help fight ‘three evil forces’,” South China Morning Post, 11 January 2022)